Monthly Archives: November 2008

Using Website Visitor Statistics As An Early Warning System

Like the canary in the coal mine, warning of the presence of deadly gases, or the seismograph warning of an impending tsunami, website (or blog) visitor statistics provide a valuable early warning system of current events, breaking news stories, and things that will be making news in the days ahead.

Google has known this for quite a while. Google’s Zeitgeist provides statistics that show the latest search trends. You can even go back and see what searches were hot on a previous date.

Like many bloggers and Webmasters, we keep tabs on Routing By Rumor’s traffic statistics. In the past 24 hours, we’ve seen a spike in visits that are related to several of the articles we’ve written in the past. An unusually high number of visitors have landed at our doorstep after doing searches for “Walmart” (or “Wal-Mart” or “Wal Mart”), “Ashley Alexandra Dupre” and “Blackrock layoffs”. We welcome the “business”, but we’re always curious as to why people end up here.

Searches for “Walmart” have always been a top search engine source of traffic to our blog. We’re guessing that a few items related to Walmart that have been in the news in the past few days have a lot to do with the sudden spike in traffic related to Walmart. Perhaps the news coverage of Walmart’s (and other retailers) day-after-Thanksgiving “Black Friday” sales have a lot to do with the increase in search engine traffic.

Ashley Alexandra Dupre is the alleged prostitute allegedly associated with the (alleged former New York Governor) Eliot Spitzer scandal, who received some coverage in this alleged blog a few months back. But why is she suddenly a top search engine topic once again? A bit of research gave us the answer. It seems that Ms. “Dupre” will be interviewed by Diane Sawyer, in a piece that will air on ABC’s 20/20 broadcast this Friday. Who ever said that crime doesn’t pay ?

We were scratching our head on the “Blackrock layoffs” searches that were bringing visitors to our blog. We wrote a piece last winter about layoffs at WCBS-AM, which we titled “Bad Day At Black Rock”. Black Rock is the nickname for CBS’s New York City headquarters building, owing to the dark granite facade of the skyscraper. But we had not heard of any new layoffs at CBS, so why the sudden interest in layoffs at “Black Rock” ?

A bit of digging yielded the answer. There are rumors floating that a round of layoffs are about to be announced at investment company Blackrock, Inc., the largest publicly traded asset management firm in the United States. Nothing to do with CBS, but close enough that it created a spike in visitors to my blog !

So, Webmasters and SEO (Search Engine Optimization) experts take note. If you see unexpected increases in traffic to your site that you can’t explain, dig deeper to find the source. Search engines rarely lie. It may be a case of mistaken identity, as with our “Black Rock” visitors. Then again, it may be an early warning of something you should know about, possibly relating to your website, your company, or a competitor.

We wonder whether mainstream media has caught on to this as a news gathering tool. It is no secret that journalists often “find” stories because they have already been covered by another newspaper, TV or radio station. Search engine statistics should be able to scoop other sources of news. The statistics are real-time, not requiring the printing of a newspaper, or the taping and editing of a television or radio news report. We would like to think that if the Internet existed back in the days of The Daily Planet, that cub reporter Jimmy Olsen would be using his computer and Google to scoop the other reporters.

We were wondering if we would get credit for coining the term “zeitgeist journalism“, so we decided to Google the phrase. Edward Rothstein, for one, used the term in this New York Times article about trend-spotting a dozen years ago, although obviously not in reference to Google, so we probably can’t claim ownership. Maybe we’ll just call it “Google journalism“.

Great Caesar’s ghost !

– Routing By Rumor

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Filed under Blogging, Business, CBS Radio, Entertainment, Google, Journalism, Life, Movies, New York City, News, Retail, Retailers, Routing by Rumor, Science Fiction, Stock Markets, TV Shows, Uncategorized, Walmart, WCBS-AM

Bloomberg Hits The Nail On The Head Regarding Economic Stimulus Plan

NYC mayor Michael R. Bloomberg

NYC mayor Michael R. Bloomberg

There was a piece on the radio this morning which discussed New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg‘s comments about any future economic stimulus plans. Unfortunately, our searches for his comments have come up empty, but we’re guessing that he made these remarks yesterday. If we’ve misquoted Mr. Bloomberg, our apologies. We are going on our recollection of what we heard on the radio this morning.

Mr. Bloomberg (his middle name is “Rubens” – how many of you knew that?) said that the first round of economic stimulus checks the government mailed out amounted to a program that allowed Americans to go buy Chinese-made widescreen TVs at Circuit City. We couldn’t agree more. In fact, if you’ve followed RoutingByRumor, you know that we have said that the first round of economic stimulus checks amounted to little more than a subsidy for Middle East Oil producing countries, big oil and China, Inc. (You can rest assured that no matter how low the price of oil goes, no matter how much demand drops, that ExxonMobil will continue to post record profits in the quarters and years ahead.)

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Mr. Bloomberg said that any future economic stimulus program should fund infrastructure projects, which would be similar to what the United States undertook to help lift the country out of The Great Depression. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt‘s Works Progress Administration (WPA) created almost eight million jobs between 1935 and 1943. Just as importantly, this New Deal agency built highways, bridges, schools and other public works projects across America that still serve our nation today. New York City has more than it’s share of crumbling infrastructure, and like other American cities, would benefit greatly from a modern-day WPA.

Mr. Bloomberg has been critical of the Federal government’s economic stimulus plan in the past. In fact, he’s been against it all along. Last February, he said the then-proposed first round of economic stimulus checks were “like giving a drink to an alcoholic”.

Athough not in relation to the current debate on future economic stimulus spending, Mr. Bloomberg appeared before lawmakers on Capitol Hill this past June, in his capacity as co-chair of Building America’s Future.   He gave this testimony about the need to invest in infrastructure projects.

At a time when there’s more layoffs in the news every day, and the scope of those job cuts are getting wider and wider (today’s news brought word of Citibank planning 10,000 job cuts worldwide), we desperately need a government program that will give American families more than fleeting relief. We need a program that will keep the economic stimulus money the government spends here at home, instead of it being an indirect subsidy for China, which doesn’t benefit American families one bit. Walmart is doing very well, thanks to American families desperate to stretch their income. There is no need to provide Americans with stimulus checks they can take to Walmart, to buy more Chinese made goods. We’ve read that something on the order of 80% of the goods on the shelves at Walmart are made in China.

There’s slim chance that outgoing President George W. Bush will try to implement a program that will put Americans to work while also rebuilding America’s infrastructure. Our hope is that President-elect Barack Obama will seize the opportunity to lift America out of hard times by proposing a program styled on Roosevelt’s WPA. If Washington is going to spend billions of more dollars in an attempt to prevent an economic collapse, doesn’t it make sense to spend it on projects that will benefit America for generations to come, while keeping our money here at home ?

– Routing By Rumor

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Filed under Business, China, Consumerism, Employment, Environment, Jobs, Labor, Money, New York City, News, Politics, Routing by Rumor, The Economy, Uncategorized, World War II, Your Money

Circuit City Stores Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Protection

This morning, Circuit City filed a bankruptcy petition (see bloomberg.com article), In Re Circuit City Stores Inc., 08-35653, with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Eastern District of Virginia. If you’ve been following this blog, you won’t be surprised by today’s filing. Circuit City has had one foot in the grave for a while now (see our article from last week). See additional coverage of this story by Forbes, The Associated Press, The New York Times, Barron’s and Reuters.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch reported that last Friday, up to 800 employees at Circuit City’s corporate headquarters (more than a third of the workers there) received pink slips.

Circuit City owes well over half a billion dollars to suppliers including Hewlett-Packard, Samsung, Sony, Zenith, Toshiba, Garmin and Nikon. With bankruptcy looming, more and more vendors have refused to extend credit to Circuit City. With today’s filing, we’re pretty sure their ability to obtain terms from vendors is now pretty much non-existent. It probably also ensures that the New York Stock Exchange will de-list Circuit City, as they have already warned, if their share price doesn’t make a sustained recovery to above $1.00 a share. In early trading today, Circuit City shares have lost more than 90% of their value, falling from a lofty $0.12 per share when the market opened, and now sitting at an embarrassing two pennies a share (but that’s at least twice as much as we think its worth, so you could say its overvalued).

11/11/2008 Update…

Well, that didn’t take long. The latest milestone on the devolution of Circuit City has occured. Circuit City shares have been delisted from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and are now trading on the Pink Sheets.  With all these pink slips and pink sheets, maybe pink is Circuit City’s new color.  Circuit City is now what is referred to as a “penny stock”. That light you see at the end of the tunnel just may be the oncoming Best Buy Express. Click here to get a quote on Circuit City shares (CCTYQ.PK)

Things have gone steadily downhill for Circuit City since they made the absolutely brilliant business decision in March of last year, to fire 3,400 of their most experienced employees. Consumerist.com has posted
this excellent timeline of Circuit City’s decline, titled “How Circuit City Came Undone”, which shows their declining stock price in relation to various events in their demise. The graph looks a lot like a ski slope. It’s the sort of thing they’ll probably use in business schools, when teaching a course in how to destroy a successful company.

Perhaps the saddest part of this modern day Greek tragedy is the fact that the executives who were the architects of this debacle earned millions of dollars for their role in the company’s failure. Perhaps the new scrutiny that the country’s economic meltdown is focusing on executive compensation will cause the directors of corporations to hold their executives responsible for the bad decisions they make. Here’s a suggestion… Instead of simply lavishing millions of dollars in company stock on executives, how about adding the condition that they won’t be vested unless there is a certain number of quarters of future growth. For instance, Mr. CEO, that five or ten million dollars worth of company stock won’t be yours unless the company makes money over the next two years. No more “take the money and run”. For too many corporate executives, it has been a game of “heads I win, tails I win”.

Given Circuit City’s history and reputation, the decrepit state of the U.S. economy, and the competition that exists in the consumer electronics space (especially from competitors Best Buy and Walmart), we think it’s a safe bet that Circuit City will never emerge from bankruptcy, and that’s, as Martha Stewart would say, “a good thing”. Last week, they announced the closing of many of their stores, and we wouldn’t bee surprised if more closings follow before the end of the year.

Coming at the beginning of the holiday shopping season, the closings and the bankruptcy filing might attract some bargain hunters, but let’s be honest… Who wants to make a major purchase from a retailer who may very well not be around, should you need to return an unwanted or defective purchase. It pretty much goes without saying that anything purchased at a going-out-of-business sale is sold as-is, no returns, no refunds. Caveat emptor.

We’re going to go out on a limb here, and make the following prediction; Circuit City’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy will become a Chapter 7 filing (liquidation) within six months, perhaps much sooner. Check back here to see how our prediction fares.

– Routing By Rumor

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Filed under Blogging, Business, Consumerism, Employment, Hewlett-Packard, Jobs, Labor, Money, News, Retail, Retailers, Routing by Rumor, Shopping, Stock Markets, Technology, The Economy, Walmart, Your Money

One Foot In The Grave At Circuit City

With just three weeks to go before most of the nation’s retailers enter their busiest time of the year, Circuit City stores have announced their latest brilliant plan. They are closing 155 of their locations, spread across 28 states (Reuters and Associated Press, 11/03/2008). The going-out-of-business sales at these locations will reportedly start tomorrow, November 5th. This is the latest bit of bad news from the nation’s #2 electronics retailer, which has had mass layoffs, sales declines, and received a lot of negative publicity in the last few years (see our previous articles about Circuit City’s problems, here, here, here and here).  With the closing of these Circuit City locations, thousands more Circuit City employees will join the ranks of the unemployed.

This should be viewed as an emergency amputation, as opposed to a pruning. When you have a healthy core, but too much growth in the branches, you prune, to keep the rest healthy. When there is systemic disease that causes necrosis at the periphery, you amputate. Other large retailers that have been proactive in difficult times tend to close just a handful of their worst performing locations, and they’ll do it after their peak selling season. Retailers that make ill-timed cuts, and who do it with an ax instead of a scalpel, tend to suffer from poor management or a lack of management. They usually don’t act until it’s too late. We believe the current debridement occuring at Circuit City falls into this category.

The fact that Circuit City could not wait until after the holiday selling season to close these stores speaks volumes about just how bad things are at the Richmond, Virginia-based electronics retailer. Indeed, with a stock price that has traded as low as 17 cents a share in recent days, and notification last week from the New York Stock Exchange that their stock is subject to de-listing, things can’t get much worse. Some of their suppliers, fearing that Circuit City is on the verge of bankruptcy, are refusing to ship merchandise to Circuit City unless they are paid cash up front. Consumers, hard hit by the recession, and disgusted with Circuit City, are spending any money they may have, elsewhere. Even with the announced closings, some analysts are predicting that Circuit City will be forced to liquidate or file for bankruptcy by January.

As bleak as things are at Circuit City, you still hear people saying that they are exploring “strategic alternatives” (see Business Week, 11/03/2008). We will submit to you that when you’re on the verge of bankruptcy, sales have dried up, vendors are demanding cash, your stock price is measured in pennies rather than dollars, you’re forced to close hundreds of stores, and the nation is in the grip of a deepening recession, you don’t have any “strategic” alternatives. The choices seem to be declaring bankruptcy now, or trying to hang on a little longer and declaring bankruptcy a few months from now. If Circuit City is pinning their hopes for survival on having a banner Christmas season, they’re in for a terrible shock. Even relatively healthy retailers are bracing for a dismal end to a dismal year, and the U.S. economy doesn’t seem poised to roar back to life anytime soon.

Circuit City’s woes spell opportunity for it’s competitors. It appears that the nation’s largest electronics retailer, Best Buy, will likely snap up some of the locations being vacated by rival Circuit City.

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