Tag Archives: NYSE

One Foot In The Grave At Circuit City

With just three weeks to go before most of the nation’s retailers enter their busiest time of the year, Circuit City stores have announced their latest brilliant plan. They are closing 155 of their locations, spread across 28 states (Reuters and Associated Press, 11/03/2008). The going-out-of-business sales at these locations will reportedly start tomorrow, November 5th. This is the latest bit of bad news from the nation’s #2 electronics retailer, which has had mass layoffs, sales declines, and received a lot of negative publicity in the last few years (see our previous articles about Circuit City’s problems, here, here, here and here).  With the closing of these Circuit City locations, thousands more Circuit City employees will join the ranks of the unemployed.

This should be viewed as an emergency amputation, as opposed to a pruning. When you have a healthy core, but too much growth in the branches, you prune, to keep the rest healthy. When there is systemic disease that causes necrosis at the periphery, you amputate. Other large retailers that have been proactive in difficult times tend to close just a handful of their worst performing locations, and they’ll do it after their peak selling season. Retailers that make ill-timed cuts, and who do it with an ax instead of a scalpel, tend to suffer from poor management or a lack of management. They usually don’t act until it’s too late. We believe the current debridement occuring at Circuit City falls into this category.

The fact that Circuit City could not wait until after the holiday selling season to close these stores speaks volumes about just how bad things are at the Richmond, Virginia-based electronics retailer. Indeed, with a stock price that has traded as low as 17 cents a share in recent days, and notification last week from the New York Stock Exchange that their stock is subject to de-listing, things can’t get much worse. Some of their suppliers, fearing that Circuit City is on the verge of bankruptcy, are refusing to ship merchandise to Circuit City unless they are paid cash up front. Consumers, hard hit by the recession, and disgusted with Circuit City, are spending any money they may have, elsewhere. Even with the announced closings, some analysts are predicting that Circuit City will be forced to liquidate or file for bankruptcy by January.

As bleak as things are at Circuit City, you still hear people saying that they are exploring “strategic alternatives” (see Business Week, 11/03/2008). We will submit to you that when you’re on the verge of bankruptcy, sales have dried up, vendors are demanding cash, your stock price is measured in pennies rather than dollars, you’re forced to close hundreds of stores, and the nation is in the grip of a deepening recession, you don’t have any “strategic” alternatives. The choices seem to be declaring bankruptcy now, or trying to hang on a little longer and declaring bankruptcy a few months from now. If Circuit City is pinning their hopes for survival on having a banner Christmas season, they’re in for a terrible shock. Even relatively healthy retailers are bracing for a dismal end to a dismal year, and the U.S. economy doesn’t seem poised to roar back to life anytime soon.

Circuit City’s woes spell opportunity for it’s competitors. It appears that the nation’s largest electronics retailer, Best Buy, will likely snap up some of the locations being vacated by rival Circuit City.

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When We Speak, Wall Street Listens.

One of the great things about hosting a blog at WordPress.com is the various tools and statistics they provide (thanks, Matt). You can see how much traffic your posts attract, how your visitors are finding your blog, what search terms people are using to find you (but sadly, not which search engine they used), and what hyperlinks in your posts they click on.

We were quite surprised this morning, when we noticed that nasdaq.com was sending traffic our way because of this article we posted yesterday about the U.S. economy. We had mentioned that New York and New Jersey utilities, including Consolidated Edison, had recently gotten steep rate increases approved by regulators, some as much as 25% and 50%.

Within a few hours, visitors to Nasdaq who looked up Consolidated Edison (NYSE: ED), were seeing a link to our blog in the “Comments From The Blogs” section on nasdaq.com. This is yet another example of how blogging has really gained legitimacy, and how mainstream media and even Wall Street have taken notice of what is being discussed by bloggers. To be sure, it is a bit of a trip, realizing that almost anyone with a computer and Internet access can have their voice heard by the world. To us, that’s perhaps the greatest thing about this experiment they call the Internet. It transcends borders (although some regimes try to surpress it), it makes the world a very small place, and it gives you access to views and opinions you would otherwise never hear. How great is that?

Now that Routing By Rumor is (almost) a household name, we want to let the New York Stock Exchange know that we are available, should Dick Grasso’s old job still be open. However, in light of the firestorm that his $140 million retirement package caused, we want to go on record as saying that we will not accept a deferred compensation package of more than $75 million. We think that even Eliot Spitzer, the former New York State Attorney General turned New York Governor (and no friend of Dick Grasso’s), who’s career crashed and burned in a sex scandal, would approve of that.

– Routing By Rumor

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The Great Bernanke Pulls A Rabbit Out Of His Hat

What might have come to be known as Black Tuesday 2008 (yesterday) was averted at the last minute, when Ben Bernanke and Company delivered a 3/4% cut to the overnight bank rate. Tuesday’s rate cut was the largest one-day rate cut ever by the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank.

As any great magician will tell you, timing is everything. The Federal Reserve waited until just before the markets opened Tuesday to announce the latest rate cut. Here at Routing By Rumor, we were way too conservative in our predictions for yesterday. We forecast the Dow dropping 200 points within the first hour of trading. In fact, the Dow dropped 464 points within minutes of opening. We predicted a loss of over 700 points on the day, which did not happen, thanks to the intervention by the Federal Reserve yesterday morning. The Dow lost just over 1% on the day, closing down 128 points. Not a good day, but much better than everybody was expecting, for a trading day that resembled nothing as much as a wild roller coaster ride. We have little doubt that had it not been for the Fed’s action yesterday morning, there would have been a bloodbath on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, just as there was on world markets earlier in the day. Instead, there was controlled bleeding, and a market that was touch-and-go all day.
That was a pretty big rabbit that Mr. Bernanke pulled out of his hat. He will only be able to pull that trick off a couple of more times before he is fresh out of rabbits. Then what? Mr. Bernanke’s rabbit arsenal reminds us of the bluff the United States pulled off in World War II. The dropping of atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki prompted the surrender of Japan a few days later. Things might have turned out much differently, had the Japanese known that we used the only two atomic bombs we had. We were fresh out.

This is economic policy driven by crisis, rather than by plan. The Fed is putting out fires, rather than addressing the reasons why the U.S. economy is faltering. But the policies that are responsible for America’s economic problems are not controlled by Mr. Bernanke and his friends. There is little more he can do than loosen and tighten the tourniquet now and then.

Hear that giant sucking sound? We do. Ross Perot did, way back in the 1990’s when he was warning us about NAFTA. That’s the sound of jobs leaving the United States. I’ve written about the problem in this blog recently. As long as we are importing most of the goods we consume in America, our economy will continue to disintegrate right before our eyes, no magician necessary. Quick fixes and slight-of-hand will only work for so long.

So what’s ahead? Look for another wild ride when the markets open later this morning. The stock market futures are pointing to a 250 point drop on the Dow and a 35 point drop on the S&P this morning, Wednesday, 1/23/2008. Don’t look for any more rabbits, at least not for a while, despite hints by the Fed that another rate cut might come at their scheduled meeting next week. We view that as an attempt to maximize the mileage they get out of Tuesday’s rate cut. And even if we’re wrong about another rate cut, don’t expect another whopper. If there are any more rabbits in Mr. Bernanke’s hat, they’re likely to be a lot of smaller rabbits, rather than another 2 or 3 bunker busters.

….And the bad news keeps rolling in. Iraq, layoffs, foreclosures, energy prices, bankruptcies, inflation, unemployment, just to name a few. As the Bernanke effect starts to wear off, we believe the markets will trend lower in the days and months ahead. Expect to see a lot of volatility in the markets, similar to what occured yesterday.

– RoutingByRumor

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Look Out When The Stock Markets Reopen Tomorrow !

Today is a national holiday (Martin Luther King Day) in the United States, and the stock markets are closed. Markets around the world have been tanking today because of the deepening U.S. recession.  If you’ll excuse the expression, the economy is “going to the dogs”.

So, look out tomorrow when the U.S markets reopen. Will tomorrow come to be known as “Black Tuesday” ? Buckle your seat belts, and don’t say we didn’t warn you !

I’ve been blogging lately about the fact that the U.S. economy is in serious trouble. Read all about it, here !

– RoutingByRumor

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