Tag Archives: U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan

Bloomberg Hits The Nail On The Head Regarding Economic Stimulus Plan

NYC mayor Michael R. Bloomberg

NYC mayor Michael R. Bloomberg

There was a piece on the radio this morning which discussed New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg‘s comments about any future economic stimulus plans. Unfortunately, our searches for his comments have come up empty, but we’re guessing that he made these remarks yesterday. If we’ve misquoted Mr. Bloomberg, our apologies. We are going on our recollection of what we heard on the radio this morning.

Mr. Bloomberg (his middle name is “Rubens” – how many of you knew that?) said that the first round of economic stimulus checks the government mailed out amounted to a program that allowed Americans to go buy Chinese-made widescreen TVs at Circuit City. We couldn’t agree more. In fact, if you’ve followed RoutingByRumor, you know that we have said that the first round of economic stimulus checks amounted to little more than a subsidy for Middle East Oil producing countries, big oil and China, Inc. (You can rest assured that no matter how low the price of oil goes, no matter how much demand drops, that ExxonMobil will continue to post record profits in the quarters and years ahead.)

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Franklin Delano Roosevelt

Mr. Bloomberg said that any future economic stimulus program should fund infrastructure projects, which would be similar to what the United States undertook to help lift the country out of The Great Depression. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt‘s Works Progress Administration (WPA) created almost eight million jobs between 1935 and 1943. Just as importantly, this New Deal agency built highways, bridges, schools and other public works projects across America that still serve our nation today. New York City has more than it’s share of crumbling infrastructure, and like other American cities, would benefit greatly from a modern-day WPA.

Mr. Bloomberg has been critical of the Federal government’s economic stimulus plan in the past. In fact, he’s been against it all along. Last February, he said the then-proposed first round of economic stimulus checks were “like giving a drink to an alcoholic”.

Athough not in relation to the current debate on future economic stimulus spending, Mr. Bloomberg appeared before lawmakers on Capitol Hill this past June, in his capacity as co-chair of Building America’s Future.   He gave this testimony about the need to invest in infrastructure projects.

At a time when there’s more layoffs in the news every day, and the scope of those job cuts are getting wider and wider (today’s news brought word of Citibank planning 10,000 job cuts worldwide), we desperately need a government program that will give American families more than fleeting relief. We need a program that will keep the economic stimulus money the government spends here at home, instead of it being an indirect subsidy for China, which doesn’t benefit American families one bit. Walmart is doing very well, thanks to American families desperate to stretch their income. There is no need to provide Americans with stimulus checks they can take to Walmart, to buy more Chinese made goods. We’ve read that something on the order of 80% of the goods on the shelves at Walmart are made in China.

There’s slim chance that outgoing President George W. Bush will try to implement a program that will put Americans to work while also rebuilding America’s infrastructure. Our hope is that President-elect Barack Obama will seize the opportunity to lift America out of hard times by proposing a program styled on Roosevelt’s WPA. If Washington is going to spend billions of more dollars in an attempt to prevent an economic collapse, doesn’t it make sense to spend it on projects that will benefit America for generations to come, while keeping our money here at home ?

– Routing By Rumor

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Dear President Bush: Send More Money !

President George W. Bush
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20500

Dear President Bush,

Just wanted to let you know that we received the very generous “economic stimulus” check you sent us recently. It was greatly appreciated.

We thank you.

ExxonMobil thanks you.

The oil speculators thank you.

Saudi Arabia thanks you.

(just to name a few)

Oh, I almost forgot… There’s just one problem. It’s all gone. With each visit to the gas station costing $75.00, your check didn’t go as far as we expected. And now, our gas gauge is on empty again.

Please sir, may we have some more ?

Sincerely,

Routing By Rumor

P.S. – Please also send another check to all of the people who have posted comments below.

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$4.00 / Gallon Gasoline Is On It’s Way. Can You Say “Fill’er Up”?

arm-leg-las-prices-512-x-501.jpg
Tom’s Shell in Madison, Wisconsin (photographed 4/25/2001)

And you think things are tough now?

Just when you thought it was safe to pull into the gas station, the experts are predicting that oil prices are going to continue their upward climb.  Oil has been closing at new record highs almost every day lately.

Actually, we think that all Americans expect to see  $4.00 $5.00/ gallon gasoline pretty soon.  Well, all except President Bush. He hasn’t been in the loop when it comes to energy prices (or most anything else, apparently). Here’s a CNN video of the February 28, 2008 press conference where Mr. Bush expresses his utter bewilderment that the experts are predicting $4.00 / gallon gas. Kinda surprising, considering that he is from an oil family, from Texas, and the leader of the free world. Then again, we don’t think Mr. Bush has had to pull any of his limos up to the pump lately. To be fair, he did say he knew “it was high”. Speaking of being high…

We think he would have been just as surprised to hear that gas has been over $3.00 / gallon for some time already. Here’s the full transcript, (where you will also find a link to video) of the entire press conference.

We know you don’t get out much these days, George. What, with the war in Iraq, and having to give orders to shoot down spy satellites and save the world from deadly hydrazine and all. But you DO surf the Web, don’t you? You do read this blog, don’t you?

We were actually hoping the spy satellite would land in our backyard. Your car gets twice as good gas mileage on hydrazine as it does on unleaded premium. We would have dragged that sucker into the garage and pumped it’s tank dry.

If high gasoline prices cause you to run out of gas when far from home, here’s one solution.

Readers can do their part. Next time you’re at the gas station, snap a picture of the gas prices, and e-mail it to the President. Unfortunately, the White House contact page lists Vice President Dick Cheney’s e-mail address, but not the President’s. Send Mr. Cheney the photo, along with a note asking him to please wake up the President and show him the e-mail. While he’s at it, perhaps Mr. Cheney can have Al Gore pay Mr. Bush a visit, and teach him how to use the Internet. After all, he did invent it.

Next time your gas gauge says “empty”, don’t bother pulling in and asking for five or ten bucks worth of gas. They’ll laugh you right out of the station. Could the $100.00 fill-up be too far off? Gas is reportedly already above $4.00/gallon in some places, such as San Francisco. Once it tops $5.00, that $100.00 fill-up could be the new reality. Can Americans afford this? What about the impact this is having on the cost of consumer goods!

The economists at RoutingByRumor predict that you’ll see gasoline break the $4.00/gallon mark this summer. And if unforeseen problems arise in the Middle East, you could see it go much higher than that. When your economic stimulus check arrives, don’t forget to take it with you to the gas station. Just think of it as President Bush’s gift to “big oil”.

If you think inflation is out of control now, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. See our recent post about what the price of oil is doing to the U.S. economy.

As Esso (or was it Humble Oil) used to say, “Happy Motoring”.

Hybrid and electric vehicles are looking better all the time.

– RoutingByRumor

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Bad Day At Black Rock – The Axe Falls At CBS Flagship Radio Station WCBS 880 AM In New York City

…And we’re not referring to the 1955 John Sturges movie by the same name, starring Spencer Tracy.

We’ve written here recently that it seems to us that the vast majority of the advertising on radio stations lately is for products best described as snake oil, and services of questionable efficacy, almost always targeted at individuals in some sort of trouble. Advertising for legitimate, mainstream products and services seems to have all but disappeared. In our mind, this is direct evidence of the faltering economy in the United States, as well as a result of the impact the Internet has had on manufacturer’s and retailer’s advertising habits. We doubt that a radio station enjoys the same type of advertising revenue from a commercial for some brand of snake oil, as it would for an ad from an automobile manufacturer, airline, bank or any other “real” advertiser. And when you hear the same snake oil spot being broadcast every few minutes, day-in and day-out, we think it’s a good bet that they are buying the airtime dirt-cheap. Tough economic times always breed a bumper crop of hucksters, snake oil salesmen and get-rich-quick schemes. We guess P.T. Barnum was right.

It came as no surprise then, when we learned that there was a round of layoffs this week at CBS radio stations, including at WCBS-AM (880 kHz) in New York City. There are reports that nearly 200 CBS radio employees lost their jobs this week. According to this posting, it’s Crystal clear that the bloodletting included WCBS jettisoning their Program Director, Crys Quimby. You can still (at least at this writing) read about Crys on her page at WCBS880.com. She had been with CBS for more than 20 years! You know things are bad when people with that much service are shown the door. We guess that means there will be no gold watch.

The day after I blogged this story, this article appeared in the Newark Star-Ledger. A statement released by CBS Radio included the following explanation…

“With these actions, we continue to build on our strategy of deploying our assets to best grow our ratings and monetize the results”

Now, if that isn’t a piece of tortured doublespeak, penned by some corporate spinmaster, we don’t know what is. In fact, we’re not even sure it’s written in English. We parsed it using our Captain Midnight secret decoder ring. It translated into “The Internet has killed our audience. Between that and the failing economy, our advertising revenue has dried up like a lake bed in a drought. We’re running out of money”.

What’s next? Hooking WCBS 880’s traffic reporter Tom Kaminski up to a bunch of helium balloons instead of having him report from “Chopper 880”? Maybe they’ll have chopper pilot Christopher LaCasse manning the helium tank. We would love to have Tom take a few hits of helium just before he goes on the air. His traffic reports would sound like this (please don’t try this, since it could be dangerous, and there’s always the chance you could sound like one of the Munchkins permanently). The Wizard Of Oz has always been our favorite movie. As a child, we would cry every time we watched it, afraid that Dorothy and Toto wouldn’t get back to Kansas. By the way, here’s why helium does funny things to your voice.

…But we digress.

About the only advice we can offer to the employees at WCBS-AM and other CBS stations who are now unemployed, is to not bother applying for jobs at Macy’s. But WCBS could enter Tom Kaminski as the newest float in the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Macy’s, one of America’s oldest and best known retailers, just announced they are cutting 2,300 jobs (read about it here). No big surprise here either, since retailers are really hurting in this economy. But hey, Wal-Mart is still hiring. As we have previously written, don’t expect the $600 income tax rebate checks Americans will be getting thanks to the U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan to be much help. In fact, we wouldn’t be surprised if Macy’s ends their more than 80 year sponsorship of the annual Thanksgiving day parade in New York City. In that case, you could say that the axe fell on the turkey, too. The Macy’s Fourth of July Fireworks show, which has dazzled New York City for over 30 years might also fizzle.

Of course, it’s not just CBS Radio or radio and TV broadcasters in general who are feeling the pinch. Newspapers are folding (pun intended) under the weight of a failing economy, coupled with the exodus of advertising dollars to the Internet, cellphones, and other electronic venues. Take The New York Times, one of America’s most venerable and respected newspapers, for example. The print edition of The New York Times is a shadow of it’s former self. Over the last year or so, entire sections of the Sunday New York Times have disappeared, while the newsstand price has climbed to $4.00. That alone, I am sure has contributed to much of the decrease in circulation that they have seen. For a long time, they didn’t even bother to renumber the remaining sections. For instance, when they killed section 10 (Help Wanted) and section 13 (Television), they simply sold the Sunday newspaper with those section numbers missing for about a year. I would imagine that prompted a lot of complaints from readers that their copy was missing some sections. Then recently, they decided to drop the section numbers altogether, simply using the remaining sections’ names only (Sports, Real Estate, etc.). I took this as an omnious sign that they expect to discontinue even more sections of their Sunday edition. We were particularly upset when the Technology section (formerly the Computers section) that appeared one (weekday) per week, shrunk and shrunk until all that remains today is one or two pages a week inside the Times’ Business section. Even the physical size of their pages has been reduced. We guess that means the Times is shrinking literally AND figuratively.

We’re not the only ones thinking that The New York Times is in big trouble. Internet pioneer Marc Andreessen, the co-founder of Netscape, has begun his “New York Times deathwatch” (see this CNN article).

So I guess we will be getting most of our news off of the Internet from now on. Too bad, because we were starting to find all those radio commercials for snake oil to be quite entertaining.

– RoutingByRumor

P.S. – Ever wonder why WCBS-AM, which used to go by the moniker “Newsradio 88” adopted the “880” identity? They’re still at the same spot on the AM dial, 880 kHz (or 0.880 mHz). When radios, especially car radios, had analog tuning dials, it was the norm to drop the last digit of frequencies below 1 megahertz. Hence, 530 kHz was shown as “53” or “53“, and 880 kHz was shown as “88” or “88” (to avoid clutter, only a few frequencies would usually be shown on the tuning dial. You would have to guesstimate the position of the other stations). Some listeners would scratch a mark into the face of the radio to mark the position of their favorite stations. We would put little dots of “white-out” on the face of the dial. With the move to digital displays on modern radios, 880 kHz is usually shown as “880”. WCBS, as well as other AM stations, simply wanted to keep things in sync, and have what you see displayed match their announced frequency.

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Bloomingdale’s Warehouse Fur Sale – Proof That Even Luxury Goods Retailers Are Hurting ?

You are more likely to find us at a PETA meeting than in the fur salon at Bloomingdale’s, and we usually don’t pay much attention to advertising for fur coats. Besides, who needs fur, when you already have, well… fur! (see our picktur). But with everyone’s preoccupation these days with the economy, and the fears of a prolonged economic recession, I guess we have fine tuned our radar to keep an eye on advertising and retail trends.

We just heard a radio commercial advertising Bloomingdale’s warehouse fur sale. Now perhaps they have this sale every year, but I can’t recall hearing or seeing this in the past. If this is a new marketing gimmick by retailers of high-end products, we think it is confirmation that the economic slump has finally reached the luxury goods market.

RoutingByRumor’s economic rule of thumb # 1: You know it’s really a recession when the luxury goods market is hurting, or when you can’t unload your mansion at any price. What’s next? Buy-one-get-one-free deals from Rolls Royce? A De Beers warehouse sale? Buy one Learjet, get the second one for half-price?

Now don’t go running out to your nearest Bloomingdale’s store. The advertisement indicated that the sale is taking place at their fur warehouse, which is actually the Danish furrier Birger Christensen’s warehouse. Birger Christensen / BC International Group (BCIG) appears to be the largest fur retailer in the United States. (As an aside, I stumbled across some interesting info about an action that BCIG brought against another retailer to gain control of the Internet domain “maximilian.com”.)

We’ve read that Bloomingdales is not Birger’s customer, but rather it’s landlord. Birger Christensen leases space in Bloomingdale’s stores and operates the fur departments with their own employees. This, coupled with the fact that the “warehouse sale” is taking place at BC’s warehouse, tells us that it is not Bloomingdale’s holding the warehouse sale, but Birger. It would be our guess that the inventory is owned by Birger, and not by Bloomingdales (or by any of the other retailers where they operate their fur salons).

With BC’s purchase of Evan’s, Inc. almost ten years ago (see this article about Evans’ history), they operate the fur salons in Bloomingdale’s, Carson Pirie Scott, Dayton’s, Filene’s Basement, Goldsmith’s, Hudson’s, Lazarus, Macy’s, Marshall Field’s, Rich’s, and Saks Fifth Avenue stores (see related article, circa 1999, so this list may have changed somewhat). We don’t know if any other retailers use warehouse sales to move luxury product inventory. Our guess is that even if they haven’t in the past, you might start seeing them doing so now, as the economy continues it’s downward spiral. See this New York Times article about a disappointing holiday season for the nation’s retailers.

As the downturn of the U.S. economy continues, we think you’ll see indications that more and more retailers are in trouble, across the board. As we wrote yesterday, we doubt the U.S. economic stimulus plan that was announced yesterday will do much to stem the tide.

If the IRS hurries up with those tax rebate checks, perhaps you’ll get yours in time to run down to the “Bloomingdale’s” warehouse fur sale and do your part to stimulate the U.S. economy. You’ll look stunning in that new chinchilla.

– RoutingByRumor

chinchilla.gif

Chinchilla

Aw, he’s sooooooooooo cute. Maybe we’ll get a faux fur coat instead.

 

2/26/2008 Update – Here’s more proof that high-end retailers are feeling the squeeze… This article from CNN indicates that Nordstrom’s sales were down almost 9% in the last quarter.

 

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Stimulus, Schmimulus ! Why The U.S. Economic Stimulus Plan Won’t Have Much Effect

They are saying that the President’s economic stimulus package might be agreed upon today. Woo Hoo. Happy days are here again.

But wait a minute… I can still hear that “giant sucking sound”,  and it’s getting louder (oh, how I wish I could have found a clip on youtube of Ross Perot coining that wonderful phrase). What will the U.S. economic stimulus plan actually accomplish? Will it lower the U.S. trade deficit or increase it? Will it lower the unemployment rate? Will it have any effect on the crumbling real estate market? We believe that the proposed U.S. economic stimulus plan will not work. It is an attempt at a quick fix. It is an ill-conceived band-aid approach to what ails the U.S. economy, proposed by an administration that does not seem to grasp the root causes responsible for the American economy being in deep, deep trouble.

What the United States needs now is something along the lines of the Works Progress Administration (WPA), which put Americans to work and helped pull the country out of the Great Depression. The WPA existed between 1935 and 1943. A chicken in every pot, and two hybrid (or electric) cars in every garage wouldn’t be a bad idea either. (We’ve copyrighted that new twist on an old campaign phrase, so if Rudy, Hillary, Barack or John want to talk, you know how to reach us.) It’s quite likely that many of the government buildings and infrastructure projects in the American city or town where you live today were constructed by the WPA during that period. The WPA was one of President Franklin D. Roosevelt‘s New Deal programs.

Taking the money the U.S. government is proposing to distribute as tax rebates, and putting it into a massive infrastructure improvement program would have several benefits, both immediate and long-lasting. It would…

– Provide long-term employment for millions of Americans

– Stimulate spending by reducing the unemployment rate, and giving the currently-employed higher incomes

– Repair or replace our crumbling infrastructure, particularly bridges

– Provide an infrastructure that will facilitate future economic growth

– Keep the money in America rather than giving the recipients of the rebate checks the ability to buy even more imported goods, a major reason we’re in this mess to begin with

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that every taxpayer in the United States gets a check for $1,000 (although it looks like many, if not most Americans will receive far less). Let’s say that Americans will spend every one of those checks rather than putting the money in the bank. Where will that money go?

If you’re about to loose your home to foreclosure, chances are good that that rebate check wouldn’t even allow you to make a single mortgage payment. Even if it does, that’s just postponing the inevitable for a few more weeks.

Perhaps you will take that rebate check and go on a shopping spree at Wal-Mart, K-Mart or Target. Wal-Mart is already America’s largest retailer and largest employer, but bigger is always better. If Wal-Mart grows, that means more low wage jobs for Americans. It means more Americans with little or no healthcare coverage. It means paving over more open land for new parking lots and big-box stores. It means more tough times for the few American manufacturers left, who are already being squeezed by the way Wal-Mart deals with their vendors.

About the only place you can spend that rebate check where the majority of the products are made in USA is at the grocery store. Unfortunately, for most Americans, eating is not a discretionary activity, and the amount of money you spend at the grocery checkout is unlikely to be influenced to any measurable extent by your rebate check.

Ben Bernanke will probably tell you that buying goods is exactly what you should do with your new found windfall. But wait a minute. As I’ve pointed out in this blog, and what you already know, unless you’ve been in a coma for the past few years, is that the vast majority of consumer goods you’ll find on retailer’s shelves are imported, overwhelmingly from China. In fact, we think that China will be the real winner if Americans go on a shopping spree. If you doubt this, just wait a few months and look at how our trade deficit with China increases as a result of this plan. Go to the mall and try to find clothing, shoes, toys, hardware or housewares made in USA. You won’t.

How is buying foreign goods supposed to help the U.S. economy? The U.S. national debt is being increased substantially by the stimulus plan in the first place. Buying foreign goods will only increase the trade deficit. Few American jobs will be created by this plan. That’s because we manufacture few products here any more, with the notable exception of food products, and even those are increasingly being imported.

With the cost of heating your home and filling your gas tank becoming an unaffordable luxury for many Americans, perhaps all of us should use our rebate checks to buy fuel oil or gasoline. The oil producing countries would love that more than oil itself. The American oil companies would support that too. Despite the fact that the oil companies have been raking in record profits, you can never be too rich, or too thin. On second thought, I think we will just cash our rebate check and ask the teller to give it to us in one dollar bills only. Then we’ll take the cash home, and use it as kindling in our fireplace. That’s one way to stay warm this winter, and it should reduce our heating bill slightly. Is it illegal to burn money?

About the smartest use we think you could put that rebate check to would be as a down payment on a hybrid or other low-emission or zero-emission vehicle. That would reduce America’s dependency on foreign oil, while helping the environment at the same time. The only problem is that very few low-emission vehicles, and almost no zero-emission vehicles are being manufactured today. And chances are good that your next car will be a foreign make that might not even be assembled in America anyway. So much for stimulating employment.

The biggest reason that the economic stimulus plan will not have any significant or long-lasting effect on the U.S. economy, is that it does nothing to address the two underlying causes of our economic problems; loss of jobs (particularly loss of good paying jobs) and the U.S. trade deficit. Until those issues are addressed, the administration can throw all the money they want at the problem, but it won’t go away. The deepening economic recession will turn into a depression, as sure as Winter will be followed by Spring.

I just came across a posting on the AFL-CIO’s website outlining their views regarding what a U.S. economic stimulus plan should include. Unfortunately, it looks like a couple of their suggestions which were originally announced by the President as being part of the package, have been eliminated in the final draft. Although I have never belonged to a labor union, I was struck by how many of their ideas match my thinking on the subject.

Maybe those rebate checks should come with the stipulation that they are not to be spent on food, imported goods or foreign oil, gas-guzzling vehicles, and may not be burned.

– RoutingByRumor

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U.S. Stock Markets Plunge At Start Of Trading Today, January 22, 2008

Well, it looks like the market futures, the pundits, and of course, the financial gurus at Routing By Rumor (RBR) were right on the money, so to speak.

We are now a few minutes into the trading day, and the Dow Jones (DJIA) has lost more than 400 points within the first five minutes of trading!  If that isn’t a freefall, it’s awfully close.  Stocks have recovered slightly in the last couple of minutes, but the Dow is still down by more than 300 points.

The White House has just announced that perhaps an even more robust economic stimulus plan is needed.  It looks like President Bush might actually be paying attention.  Finally.

Today should be a very interesting day.

– RoutingBuRumor

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